Steady Price Growth and Regional Changes
The average UK house price currently stands at £267,500, with year-on-year growth varying between regions. Cities like Manchester (2.8%), Liverpool (2.4%), Leeds (2%), and Sheffield (1.5%) have seen moderate price increases. Overall UK house price growth remains lower at 1% over the past 12 months, up from a -0.9% decrease the previous year. This slower growth is largely due to affordability pressures that temper buyer demand.
The October property market saw average asking prices for newly listed homes rise 0.3%, equal to +£1,199, reaching an average of £371,958, which is a rate well below the usual 1.3% increase for this season. However, regions with more affordable properties, such as the North East, Yorkshire & Humberside, and North West, are witnessing above-average growth, all-seeing around 2% growth. Meanwhile, prices have dropped slightly in the East (-0.3%) and South East (-0.1%). Overall, UK house prices are expected to record a 2% growth in 2024, as last year’s price declines are phased out of the annual figures.
Housing Demand is at its Highest Since 2020
The housing market in 2024 is experiencing a notable upward trend, with sales reaching their highest levels since the post-pandemic boom of late 2020. Intense competition among lenders has driven mortgage rates to their lowest point in two years, which, combined with rising household incomes, has fuelled a surge in home buying.
The total value of agreed sales has climbed to £113 billion, a 30% increase from last year. Sales agreements have surged by 29% year-over-year, reflecting a strong recovery from last year’s weaker market.
Buyer demand remains strong, with 17% more people contacting agents compared to this time in 2023, showing resilience even with the uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget.
Top Buyer Groups in 2024
The significant upswing in property sales throughout 2024 reflects a resurgence of first-time buyers (FTBs) and existing homeowners who had delayed moving plans while waiting for more favourable borrowing conditions and a stable market.
Now, with interest rates lower and market confidence growing, FTBs are taking the lead, expected to account for 36% of all sales this year. Existing homeowners are also playing a substantial role, comprising 31% of purchases as they take advantage of improved market conditions to upgrade, downsize, or relocate.
For investors, the share of cash buyers is particularly notable, projected to make up 27% of transactions. This group consists of mortgage-free homeowners and cash-ready investors who are strategically avoiding higher financing costs, allowing them to capitalise on properties without the burden of interest payments, a significant advantage in maximising returns.
Landlords purchasing with buy-to-let mortgages, however, have a smaller presence, accounting for only 7% of sales, as high mortgage rates create challenges for leveraged investments. Additionally, with continued rent growth, many investors are also evaluating rental yields more closely to optimise returns on high-demand rental properties, particularly in regions where rental yields are outpacing national averages.
Improving Affordability and Rate Cuts
Financial markets are anticipating two Bank Rate cuts before year-end, which could create a more favourable environment for property investment in 2025. With wage growth currently outpacing house price growth, housing affordability is improving.
For fixed-rate mortgages, current averages stand at 5.09% for two-year terms and 4.85% for five-year terms across all lenders, but the “big six” lenders are offering slightly lower rates on average at 4.52% and 4.19%. For investors, these rates suggest that locking in a mortgage may soon be more affordable.
Furthermore, another Base Rate reduction is predicted to happen by the end of this year, with expectations that it could fall to around 3.5% by Autumn 2025, though this depends on the broader economic trends.
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